EUSOS follow up – is it the beds?

Over the next few months I am sure that the real reasons for the comparatively poor outcomes of Irish patients in the EUSOS study will emerge. In the meantime, we can only guess the reasons. Aside from blaming surgeons for poor patient selection (which is suspiciously convenient), case volume may be a problem, the time of day (exhaustion), the amount of emergency surgery (including case volume) or the issue may lie in our own backyard – in the availability of beds for high risk postoperative patients. Emergency surgery patients, in particular, do poorly.

A US study of 25,710 nonemergency colorectal resections performed at 142 hospitals reported a 1.9% (492 patients) mortality rate. For emergency colorectal resection the mortality rate was 15.3% (780 of 5,083 patients). Fifty percent of emergency surgery patients had at least 1 complication versus 24% of elective surgery patients. This is horrifying.

The first report of the UK emergency laparotomy network (here), published in the BJA, presents similar mortality data. As a guide, mortality rates for major elective general surgery have been reported as follows: colorectal resection – 2.7%,  oesophagectomy – 3.1%, gastrectomy – 4.2% and liver metastasis resection – 1%. In this study (data from 1853 patients were collected from 35 NHS hospitals) the unadjusted 30 day mortality was 14.9% for all patients and 24.4% in patients aged 80 or over.

We are aware that emergency surgery patients come in at all hours of the night and are frequently operated on by junior doctors. The time of day was an issue (table below) – 30 day mortality was 50% higher if surgery took place between midnight and 8am. Obviously confounders may be present – surgeons may only take the sickest patients to theatre at night, and this may represent selection bias.

Time of day* n Consultant anaesthetist present (%) Consultant surgeon present (%) 30 day mortality (%)
08:00–17:59 1044 75.2 80.8 14.2
18:00–23:59 442 54.8 67.7 17.8
00:00–07:59 152 40.8 61.8 20.3

Bad outcomes occurred for patients admitted under a medical service who actually had a surgical problem, increasing age, increasing ASA physical status.

What about beds? “Of the patients who were felt to need intensive care immediately after surgery, 99% were transferred to a level 3 bed. Similarly, 89% of those who were judged to require a high-dependency bed received this level of care, with a further 4% receiving level 2 care in an ICU bed. Mortality in patients returning to the ward (level 1) was 6.7%, HDU 10.1%, and ICU 30.7%. 2.2% of patients were cared for after operation in an extended recovery area (presumably because there was no HDU bed available), and this group had a mortality of 13.5%. For the group of patients aged 60 or greater, and of ASA III or more (∼50% of all patients), 22% returned to the general ward after operation and had a mortality of 17.8%.” One must presume that this 22% represented at least part of the 11% that didn’t get the needed HDU beds. Hence, one could crudely argue that the patients that needed HDU beds but didn’t get them had an absolute mortality risk increase of 7.7% (the authors do not give us sufficient data to make direct comparisons, but more than 50% of patients were >60y and ASA III or greater). The overall mortality for patients sent to a regular ward was 6.7%, which appears to be very high when compared with data from general elective surgery (above). However, a recent study of all 160,920 patients who underwent bowel resection for colorectal cancer between 1998 and 2006 in the English NHS reported a mortality rate of 6.7%

These data at least suggest that lack of availability of a HDU/ICU bed significantly increases the risk of poor postoperative outcomes for emergency surgical patients.

The utilization of critical care services has been known to be suboptimal for many years. A previous study, published in Anaesthesia (here) looked at 26000 patients undergoing surgery in an NHS trust: “only 852 (35.3%) high-risk patients were admitted to a critical care unit at any stage after surgery. Of 294 high-risk patients who died, only 144 (49.0%) were admitted to a critical care unit at any time and only 75 (25.6%) of these deaths occurred within a critical care area. Mortality rates were high amongst patients discharged and readmitted to critical care (37.7%) and amongst those admitted to critical care following initial postoperative care on a standard ward (29.9%).” So, inadequate numbers of ICU/HDU beds are associated with poor outcomes, and early discharge (presumably for bed pressure) and readmission is associated with 1/3 of patients dying.

Ireland has a similar number of critical care beds per 100,000 population (6.5/100,000) to the UK (6.6/100,000). In a recent pan European study conducted by Andy Rhodes (here), Ireland ranked 26th out of 31 (UK was 25th) in critical care bed numbers per 100,000. The European average was 11.5. Overall, Ireland ranked 28th/31 for number of acute care beds and  23rd out of 31 for ICU beds as a % of acute care beds. So, we have very few beds for sick patients, and of these very few of them are critical care beds. Ireland spends 7.2% of GDP on healthcare (15th/31) and has the 6th highest GDP in proportion to ICU beds. In other words – we spend very little money comparatively on critical care compared with Europe. This might reflect the fact that we have the 2nd youngest population in Europe (10.4% are 65 or older).

In summary – is lack of critical care beds a likely factor for Irelands poor showing in EUSOS: almost certainly. Do these studies fully explain the difference – no! Unfortunately, the OR death was still 2.6 times the UK with a similar number of ICU/HDU beds. It could be argued that the bed numbers are inflated in Ireland, due to poor distribution between hospitals – community hospitals have underused ICU beds, referral centers have inadequate capacity. But that is another discussion….

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